Tuesday, February 17, 2009

do the Thunder have a Battier?

Michael Lewis applies his modernization model to basketball, a sport that seems extremely resistant to meaningful statistical analysis given its dynamism and relative lack of positional specialization among the big three sports.

Is there an equivalent to Battier on the Thunder? Or at least an, ahem, poor-man's Battier? The candidates of invisible statistical value would have to be Desmond Mason, Nick Collison, and Kyle Weaver. Though, of course, the small sample of games since the Thunder began to resemble a respectable club (coupled with statistical naivete) makes this merely speculative.

The best player pair on the Thunder has been Weaver and Green, at +5.3 points per 48 minutes (this through Feb 10). Weaver's also relatively effective with the other two stool legs, Durant (-3) and Westbrook (-1). Mason was +0, -2, -3 with Westbrook, Durant, and Green, respectively. Collison is +2, -7, -6.

This isn't, of course, the sort of analysis Lewis describes in Houston. But even if we could plumb those depths, it's unrealistic to expect Weaver, at this point is his career, to practice the sort of spatial sophistication Battier practices. I suspect that Collison's value is least represented in the stats, particularly given the players he's asked to match up against.

I wonder if the Thunder have this sort of statistical capability. On the face of things, Presti seems to pass the eyeball test as one of the whiz kid stat nerds a la Theo Epstein. If I were a reporter with the Daily Joke, I'd be piggy-backing on Lewis and exploring this angle.

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